{
  "name": "AGI Scorecard — Situational Awareness predictions, graded",
  "description": "Live verdicts on every major prediction from Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness (June 2024), graded against public evidence with pre-registered flip conditions.",
  "url": "https://agiscorecard.com/",
  "dataUrl": "https://agiscorecard.com/data.json",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 — reuse freely with attribution and a link to https://agiscorecard.com",
  "dateModified": "2026-07-12",
  "summary": {
    "on_track": 3,
    "wrong": 1,
    "open": 2,
    "pending": 2
  },
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": "knowledge-work",
      "target": "2025/26",
      "prediction": "Models outpace college graduates across knowledge work",
      "verdict": "On track",
      "evidence": "~83% on GDPval-style knowledge work; ~80% SWE-Bench Pro; agent products in production",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "OpenAI GDPval",
          "url": "https://openai.com/index/gdpval/"
        },
        {
          "name": "SWE-bench",
          "url": "https://www.swebench.com"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/can-ai-replace-knowledge-workers"
    },
    {
      "id": "compute-scaling",
      "target": "~0.5 OOM/yr",
      "prediction": "Compute + algorithmic scaling continues at trend",
      "verdict": "On track",
      "evidence": "Effective-compute pace roughly held through mid-2026",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Epoch AI — Trends in AI",
          "url": "https://epoch.ai/trends"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/is-ai-compute-still-scaling"
    },
    {
      "id": "capex",
      "target": "$500B/yr era",
      "prediction": "Massive AI capex acceleration",
      "verdict": "Exceeded",
      "evidence": "Investment exceeded the essay's projections; revenue lags the spend",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Epoch AI — Finances of AI",
          "url": "https://epoch.ai/topics/finances"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/ai-capex-trillion-dollar"
    },
    {
      "id": "open-source-fades",
      "target": "—",
      "prediction": "Open source fades; proprietary algorithms create a durable US moat",
      "verdict": "Wrong",
      "evidence": "DeepSeek/Qwen open-weight models within ~3-6 months of frontier",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Epoch AI",
          "url": "https://epoch.ai"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/did-open-source-ai-fade"
    },
    {
      "id": "agi-2027",
      "target": "2027",
      "prediction": "AGI: models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer",
      "verdict": "Open",
      "evidence": "Agentic coding strong; autonomous AI research undemonstrated; resolves 2028-01-01",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, 2024)",
          "url": "https://situational-awareness.ai"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/will-agi-arrive-2027"
    },
    {
      "id": "the-project",
      "target": "2027/28",
      "prediction": "US government launches formal AGI project",
      "verdict": "Open",
      "evidence": "National-security involvement growing; no formal project",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, 2024)",
          "url": "https://situational-awareness.ai"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/will-the-us-government-build-agi"
    },
    {
      "id": "intelligence-explosion",
      "target": "2027-29",
      "prediction": "Intelligence explosion: a decade of progress in ~1 year",
      "verdict": "Pending",
      "evidence": "Precondition (autonomous AI research) undemonstrated",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, 2024)",
          "url": "https://situational-awareness.ai"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/intelligence-explosion-2027"
    },
    {
      "id": "superintelligence",
      "target": "2030s",
      "prediction": "Superintelligence; decisive strategic advantage",
      "verdict": "Pending",
      "evidence": "Downstream of AGI and intelligence explosion",
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, 2024)",
          "url": "https://situational-awareness.ai"
        }
      ],
      "detail": "https://agiscorecard.com/will-there-be-superintelligence"
    }
  ],
  "forecaster_timelines": [
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "position": "AGI by end of 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "position": "\"Powerful AI\" possibly 2026-27"
    },
    {
      "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
      "position": "AGI 2027"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sam Altman",
      "position": "Near-term; superintelligence \"a few thousand days\""
    },
    {
      "name": "Demis Hassabis",
      "position": "~50% by 2030"
    },
    {
      "name": "Samotsvety",
      "position": "~28% by 2030"
    },
    {
      "name": "Metaculus community",
      "position": "25% by 2029; 50% by 2033"
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrej Karpathy",
      "position": "About a decade out"
    },
    {
      "name": "AI researcher survey (n=2778)",
      "position": "50% by 2040"
    }
  ],
  "thesisTracker": {
    "name": "AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker",
    "score": 62.5,
    "of": 100,
    "asOf": "2026-07-12",
    "method": "Mean of the 8 verdict weights (supportive=1, unresolved/open/pending=0.5, refuted=0) x100. An editorial composite of the published verdicts, not a probability.",
    "historyUrl": "https://agiscorecard.com/index-history.json",
    "pageUrl": "https://agiscorecard.com/progress-index"
  }
}