# What could slow AI’s own research progress? | AGI The panel debates whether research and engineering bottlenecks could constrain recursive AI improvement. --- Canonical page: https://agiscorecard.com/future-guide/improvement-bottlenecks Machine-readable verdicts: https://agiscorecard.com/data.json (CC BY 4.0) This Markdown mirror is generated from the page; the HTML page is canonical. ## Source-linked future guide You can read all sources and guides without JavaScript. Enable it to filter, save or export your own plan. Future guide (/future-guide) / Look for the bottleneck Look for the bottleneck What could slow AI’s own research progress? The panel debates whether research and engineering bottlenecks could constrain recursive AI improvement. John Schulman · Beren Millidge · Charlie O’Neill · Dwarkesh Podcast Interview: 2026-09-11 Source review: 2026-10-03 Dwarkesh Podcast · Video · 00:00:00 John Schulman · Beren Millidge · Charlie O’Neill Return to the original context. ▶ Load original video Connects to YouTube only after you click. Watch from this chapter ↗ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrSf7IOYu-I&t=0s)Publisher’s original page ↗ (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/john-beren-charlie) Source, interpretation and uncertainty What does this actually establish? Source status Publisher chapter at 00:00:00 · Not an independently verified outcome Speaker context Researchers from Thinking Machines, Zyphra and Baseten · a debate, not a consensus forecast What remains open The participants disagree; this is not a shared timetable or a settled result. AGI editorial interpretation Two ways this could unfold Removing a bottleneck could accelerate progress. A new constraint could keep the overall pace uneven. These are conditional scenarios, not the speaker’s words or a probability estimate. Read alongside: How should we prepare if powerful AI arrives sooner? (/future-guide/fast-ai-progress) Different framing, dates and definitions; not a direct head-to-head forecast. Where do I stand for now? Lean toward agreement Lean toward disagreement Need more evidence This is your private, device-only record. No public vote count or collective probability is implied. Turn a view into a small experiment What is my next step? A simple plan you can test and revise. Your notes stay in this tab until you save them. What matters to me Understand the change Adapt my work Choose what to learn Explore income ideas Think about education Test my judgment The task or question in my life One action I will try Use the editorial starting point ↗ What would change my view? My review date (optional) I have tried this action Save my next step Export plan Add to calendar Saved on this device. You control the plan and review date; these are not model predictions. Read the interview and evidence on AGI ↗ (https://agiscorecard.com/future-guide/improvement-bottlenecks) Embed the free action planner Video and context stay on this source page. ← Return to my next steps (/future-guide#notebook) ✳ JARVIS Research guide Which bottleneck must actually disappear for my forecast to hold? Write down one bottleneck and an observable result that would show it weakening. Make my next step ↗ (#plan) Based on published sources and editorial guidance. This is not an AI-generated forecast or a personal capability assessment. A useful reading path A view in its original context A reason to stay open-minded An action you can try No account required. When you want to keep the work Your next step deserves a place to return to. Reading, video access, local saves and exports are free. Use the same plan on another device with AGI’s existing cloud workspace and version history. No paid interview collection or automated personal-report subscription is offered here. AGI cloud membership 9 USDT / 30 days Plus the order-matching decimal and network fees. 50 workspaces, 10 versions per workspace, 64 KB per workspace and 5 MB in total. No auto-renewal or extra AI allowance. Open my plan in membership The member page checks availability. Opening it does not upload your plan or start a purchase; save there explicitly. USDT payment only.