# The AGI Scorecard > An independent, continuously-updated scorecard that grades every major prediction from Leopold Aschenbrenner's 2024 essay *Situational Awareness* against real-world AI progress. As of mid-2026: 3 predictions on track, 1 wrong, 2 open, 2 too early. The headline "AGI by 2027" claim resolves by January 1, 2028. Each verdict is one of: On track, Wrong, Open, or Pending, and carries a pre-registered condition that would flip it. Data is recombined across pages from the same verified evidence base. Not affiliated with any AI lab. ## Data - [Atom feed (newest pages & updates)](https://agiscorecard.com/feed.xml): Subscribe for every new verdict page and update. - [Machine-readable verdicts (JSON, CC BY 4.0)](https://agiscorecard.com/data.json): All 8 predictions with verdicts, evidence, primary-source links, forecaster timelines, and the Thesis Tracker score — free to cite with attribution. - [AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker](https://agiscorecard.com/progress-index): A single auditable 0–100 score (currently 62.5) of how much of Aschenbrenner's thesis is holding up, computed from the 8 verdicts; score history at /index-history.json. - [Free AI & AGI tools (hub)](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-tools): All six free, no-sign-up interactive tools in one place — AGI Type Test, AI Job Risk Check, The Future Bet, Thesis Tracker, Prediction Receipts, Forecaster Leaderboard. Three are embeddable via ?embed=1; copy-paste iframe code on the page. - [What's your AGI type? (30-second test)](https://agiscorecard.com/agi-test): Interactive test that maps you onto the forecaster spectrum (Musk/Aschenbrenner/Hassabis/Metaculus) and returns an archetype. - [The Future Bet (60-second game)](https://agiscorecard.com/future-bet): Bet YES/NO on 12 bold predictions (AGI, humanoid robots, Mars, anti-aging, fusion, alien life) and get a Futurist type + shareable grid; embeddable on other sites via iframe. Bridges to the AGI Tracker. - [Will AI take my job? (60-second exposure check)](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-job-risk-check): 6-question self-assessment returning an honest exposure tier grounded in tracked evidence (~83% GDPval, ~80% SWE-Bench Pro, the autonomy gap). No invented per-job statistics. - [AI prediction receipts](https://agiscorecard.com/prediction-receipts): Live countdowns to every dated public AGI call — Musk end-2026 (first to come due), Amodei 2026–27, Aschenbrenner 2027, Hassabis 2030, Metaculus 2033, survey 2040. Receipts stay when dates pass. - [AGI forecaster leaderboard](https://agiscorecard.com/forecaster-leaderboard): Every public AGI forecaster ranked by how soon they called it — Musk (end 2026), Aschenbrenner (2027), Amodei (2026–27), Hassabis/Samotsvety (~2030), Metaculus (2033), Karpathy (~2035), researcher survey (2040). Nobody has resolved yet; the Thesis Tracker reads 62.5/100. - [Data for AI agents](https://agiscorecard.com/for-agents): How to plug the scorecard's JSON, Atom feed, and llms.txt into any AI agent or digest tool. - [Installable agent skill](https://agiscorecard.com/skill): One-command skill (SKILL.md at /skill.md) that teaches Claude Code or any compatible agent to answer AGI questions from live data and alert on verdict flips. - [README verdict badges](https://agiscorecard.com/badge): One-line markdown badges showing the live "AGI by 2027" verdict and scorecard tally; auto-update on verdict changes. - [Warren Buffett's AI stocks](https://agiscorecard.com/invest/warren-buffett): Q1 2026 13F — Amazon fully exited, Alphabet +225%, Apple untouched at ~22%; book cut from 40 names to 26. - [Cathie Wood's AI portfolio](https://agiscorecard.com/invest/cathie-wood): ARK Q1 2026 13F — ~$12.9B across 181 positions, Tesla 8.2% #1, AMD added to #2 (4.3%); CoreWeave, Tempus, Amazon added. - [AI Investing Hub](https://agiscorecard.com/invest): How capital is positioned on AI — Aschenbrenner's ~$20B fund (long AI power/infra, ~$8.5B notional puts vs chip names) and 8 investing legends' Q1 2026 13F stances (Buffett: Amazon exit + Alphabet +225%; Wood bull; Burry bear). Education only, public filings only. ## Index - [AGI questions, answered (full index)](https://agiscorecard.com/agi-questions): One-page index of every question the scorecard answers. ## Core pages - [Live scorecard (home)](https://agiscorecard.com/): The current verdict on all 8 predictions. - [Was Aschenbrenner right about AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/was-aschenbrenner-right): Verdict tracker — 3 on track, 1 wrong, 2 open. - [Two-year scorecard (full analysis)](https://agiscorecard.com/two-year-scorecard.html): Grading reasoning, evidence, and pre-registered flip conditions for each prediction. - [Situational Awareness predictions, tracked](https://agiscorecard.com/situational-awareness-predictions): Every prediction with its current verdict and evidence. - [Situational Awareness, summarized](https://agiscorecard.com/situational-awareness-summary): What the essay argues and how each prediction is holding up. ## Key questions - [What is AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/what-is-agi): AI that can do essentially any cognitive task a skilled human can; the three working definitions and where each stands in 2026. - [Is ChatGPT AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/is-chatgpt-agi): No — near skilled-human on scoped tasks (~83% GDPval) but missing reliable autonomous work, and far from superintelligence. - [AI vs human intelligence](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-vs-human-intelligence): Superhuman on recall/speed/scoped tasks, below human on reliable autonomous judgment — a jagged frontier, not one scale. - [Narrow vs general AI](https://agiscorecard.com/narrow-vs-general-ai): The ANI → AGI → ASI ladder; everything in 2026 is still (very wide) narrow AI — reliable unsupervised autonomy is the line to general. - [How will we know when AGI has arrived?](https://agiscorecard.com/how-will-we-know-agi-arrived): The real test is reliable unsupervised autonomy (an AI researcher's job end-to-end), not a benchmark score. - [Who is building AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/who-is-building-agi): OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, xAI lead, with open-weight pressure from DeepSeek/Qwen; none has crossed the autonomy bar. - [Will AGI arrive by 2027?](https://agiscorecard.com/will-agi-arrive-2027): Open. Agentic coding is strong (~80% SWE-Bench Pro) but autonomous AI research is undemonstrated; resolves by January 1, 2028. - [When will AGI arrive? (all forecasts)](https://agiscorecard.com/when-will-agi-arrive): Public forecasts range from 2026 (Musk) to 2040 (academic survey median); expert medians compressed from ~2060 to ~2033 in six years. - [Did open-source AI fade?](https://agiscorecard.com/did-open-source-ai-fade): No — graded Wrong. DeepSeek V4 and Qwen 3.7 Max trail the frontier by only ~3–6 months. - [Will the US government build AGI? (The Project)](https://agiscorecard.com/will-the-us-government-build-agi): Open. National-security involvement is growing but no formal government AGI project exists. - [Will there be an intelligence explosion in 2027?](https://agiscorecard.com/intelligence-explosion-2027): Pending. The precondition (autonomous AI research) is undemonstrated. ## Verdict deep-dives - [Can AI replace knowledge workers?](https://agiscorecard.com/can-ai-replace-knowledge-workers): On track. ~83% GDPval, ~80% SWE-Bench Pro; drop-in reliability still lags benchmarks. - [Will AI cause mass unemployment?](https://agiscorecard.com/will-ai-cause-mass-unemployment): Not the overnight cliff — capability crossed thresholds but reliable unsupervised job replacement is undemonstrated; task automation, not a sudden jobs cliff. - [What jobs are safe from AI?](https://agiscorecard.com/what-jobs-are-safe-from-ai): The safest work needs reliable unsupervised judgment, physical action, or human trust — where the autonomy gap bites hardest. - [Will AI take over?](https://agiscorecard.com/will-ai-take-over): Every takeover scenario presupposes reliable autonomous agency, which is undemonstrated — AI is a powerful assistant, not an autonomous agent. - [Is AI compute still scaling?](https://agiscorecard.com/is-ai-compute-still-scaling): On track. The ~0.5 OOM/yr pace has roughly held. - [Did AI capex hit trillion-dollar scale?](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-capex-trillion-dollar): Exceeded — his most vindicated call; revenue, however, lags the spend. - [Will there be superintelligence in the 2030s?](https://agiscorecard.com/will-there-be-superintelligence): Pending. Depends on AGI and an intelligence explosion that haven't occurred. ## Analysis - [Is AGI inevitable?](https://agiscorecard.com/is-agi-inevitable): Strongly trending, not guaranteed — depends on one unproven step (autonomous work) and the input trends holding. - [Is AGI just hype?](https://agiscorecard.com/is-agi-just-hype): Neither pure hype nor imminent — a scorecard-based read: trends on track, one big claim already wrong, "AGI by 2027" still open. - [Will AI replace programmers?](https://agiscorecard.com/will-ai-replace-programmers): Partly and unevenly — ~80% SWE-Bench Pro and agents in production, but no unsupervised end-to-end replacement. - [Demis Hassabis's AGI prediction](https://agiscorecard.com/demis-hassabis-agi-prediction): ~50% by 2030 — cautious frontier-builder view. - [Elon Musk's AGI prediction](https://agiscorecard.com/elon-musk-agi-prediction): By end of 2026 — the most aggressive public call. - [Andrej Karpathy's AGI prediction](https://agiscorecard.com/karpathy-agi-prediction): About a decade out — the most conservative frontier-insider call. - [Sam Altman's AGI prediction](https://agiscorecard.com/sam-altman-agi-prediction): Confident and near-term — superintelligence "a few thousand days" away, no hard date. - [Dario Amodei's AGI prediction](https://agiscorecard.com/dario-amodei-agi-prediction): "Powerful AI" — a country of geniuses in a datacenter — possibly as early as 2026–27. - [AGI vs superintelligence](https://agiscorecard.com/agi-vs-superintelligence): The definitions, the chain between them, and where each stands. - [The Situational Awareness timeline](https://agiscorecard.com/aschenbrenner-timeline): All five predicted stages with live verdicts. - [Is the AI capex a bubble?](https://agiscorecard.com/is-the-ai-capex-a-bubble): Spend exceeded projections but revenue lags — the gap is the risk. - [What is superintelligence?](https://agiscorecard.com/what-is-superintelligence) - [What is the singularity?](https://agiscorecard.com/what-is-the-singularity): The point where AI improving AI triggers runaway progress (the intelligence explosion); precondition undemonstrated, graded Pending.: AI far beyond humans; predicted early 2030s via an intelligence explosion; Pending. - [AI orders of magnitude (OOMs), explained](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-orders-of-magnitude-explained): The ~0.5 OOM/yr effective-compute bet behind the 2027 forecast. - [What is unhobbling in AI?](https://agiscorecard.com/what-is-unhobbling-ai): Gains from reasoning/tools/agents, not raw scale — one of three drivers. - [What is GDPval?](https://agiscorecard.com/gdpval-explained): The knowledge-work benchmark (~83%) behind the On-track "AI outpaces knowledge workers" verdict. - [What is SWE-Bench?](https://agiscorecard.com/swe-bench-explained): The agentic-coding benchmark (~80% on Pro) behind the AI-coding verdicts. - [AI progress in 2026 so far](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-progress-2026-so-far) - [How fast is AI improving?](https://agiscorecard.com/how-fast-is-ai-improving): Fast on inputs (~0.5 OOM/yr, benchmarks into the 80s%), slow on the autonomy that defines AGI — two speeds.: Mid-year synthesis — 3 on track, 1 wrong, 2 open, 2 pending. - [Are AI scaling laws dead?](https://agiscorecard.com/are-ai-scaling-laws-dead): No — ~0.5 OOM/yr roughly held; gains shifted toward reasoning/tools/agents. - [How close are we to AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/how-close-is-agi): Close on capability (~83% GDPval, ~80% SWE-Bench Pro), not on autonomy. - [DeepSeek vs OpenAI: how far behind is China?](https://agiscorecard.com/deepseek-vs-openai-gap): ~3–6 months, at a fraction of the cost, with real innovation. - [What is the AI 2027 scenario?](https://agiscorecard.com/ai-2027-scenario-explained): A 2025 month-by-month takeoff scenario sharing 2027 timing with Situational Awareness. - [The US–China AI arms race](https://agiscorecard.com/us-china-ai-arms-race): "The Project" is Open, but its durable-moat premise is already weakening. ## Comparisons - [Aschenbrenner vs Metaculus](https://agiscorecard.com/aschenbrenner-vs-metaculus): 2027 vs the community median of 50% by 2033. - [Aschenbrenner vs Hassabis](https://agiscorecard.com/aschenbrenner-vs-hassabis): 2027 vs ~50% by 2030. - [Altman vs Musk on AGI](https://agiscorecard.com/altman-vs-musk-agi): The two most-watched positions — a dated bet vs an unfalsifiable one. - [Altman vs Amodei on AGI](https://agiscorecard.com/altman-vs-amodei-agi): Similar timelines, opposite definitional discipline. - [Musk vs Hassabis on AGI](https://agiscorecard.com/musk-vs-hassabis-agi): Boldest date (2026) vs builder's caution (~50% by 2030). - [Karpathy vs Altman on AGI](https://agiscorecard.com/karpathy-vs-altman-agi): Same OpenAI roots, reads a decade apart. - [Aschenbrenner vs Musk](https://agiscorecard.com/aschenbrenner-vs-musk): 2027 vs Musk's end-of-2026 — the two most aggressive public forecasts. - [Situational Awareness vs AI 2027](https://agiscorecard.com/situational-awareness-vs-ai-2027): Two 2027 AGI forecasts compared — a trend essay vs a narrative scenario. ## Geopolitics - [Is China beating the US to AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/will-china-beat-us-to-agi): Not yet — the US frontier leads, but the gap is months, not years, undercutting the durable-moat thesis. ## People - [Who is Leopold Aschenbrenner?](https://agiscorecard.com/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner): Former OpenAI researcher, author of Situational Awareness, founder of Situational Awareness LP. ## 中文 (Chinese) - [什么是 AGI](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/what-is-agi) - [阿申布伦纳预测准吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [AGI 会在 2027 年到来吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [开源 AI 衰落了吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [中国会在 AGI 上超过美国吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [AGI 什么时候到来](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/when-will-agi-arrive) - [莱奥波德·阿申布伦纳是谁](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) - [奥特曼的 AGI 预测](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/sam-altman-agi-prediction) - [马斯克的 AGI 预测](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/elon-musk-agi-prediction) - [AGI 还有多远](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/how-close-is-agi) - [AGI 是炒作吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/is-agi-just-hype) - [DeepSeek 和 OpenAI 的差距](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/deepseek-vs-openai-gap) - [AI 会取代程序员吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/will-ai-replace-programmers) - [什么是超级智能](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/what-is-superintelligence) - [中美 AI 竞赛](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/us-china-ai-arms-race) - [AGI 和超级智能的区别](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/agi-vs-superintelligence) - [AGI-2027 命题追踪指数](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/progress-index) - [免费 AI 工具合集（中文）](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/ai-tools): 6 个免费免注册的互动工具中文入口：AGI 类型测试、岗位暴露度自查、押注未来、追踪指数、投资板块、预言收据；其中 3 个支持 ?embed=1 嵌入。 - [AGI 类型测试：你是哪种？](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/agi-test): 30 秒互动测试，测出你的 AGI 立场原型，与主要预测者对比。 - [ChatGPT 算 AGI 吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/is-chatgpt-agi) - [AI 会造成大规模失业吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/will-ai-cause-mass-unemployment) - [我们怎么知道 AGI 到来了](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/how-will-we-know-agi-arrived) - [谁在造 AGI](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/who-is-building-agi) - [什么是奇点](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/what-is-the-singularity) - [哪些工作不会被 AI 取代](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/what-jobs-are-safe-from-ai) - [AI 和人类智能对比](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/ai-vs-human-intelligence) - [AI 进步有多快](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/how-fast-is-ai-improving) - [窄 AI vs 通用 AI](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/narrow-vs-general-ai) - [AI 会接管世界吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/will-ai-take-over) - [AGI 是必然的吗](https://agiscorecard.com/zh/is-agi-inevitable) ## Español (Spanish) - [¿Acertó Aschenbrenner sobre la AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/es/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [¿Llegará la AGI en 2027?](https://agiscorecard.com/es/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [¿Se desvaneció la IA de código abierto?](https://agiscorecard.com/es/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [¿Superará China a EE. UU. en la AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/es/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [¿Cuándo llegará la AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/es/when-will-agi-arrive) - [¿Quién es Leopold Aschenbrenner?](https://agiscorecard.com/es/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) ## 日本語 (Japanese) - [アッシェンブレナーの予測は当たったか](https://agiscorecard.com/ja/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [AGIは2027年に来るか](https://agiscorecard.com/ja/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [オープンソースAIは衰退したか](https://agiscorecard.com/ja/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [中国はAGIで米国を追い抜くか](https://agiscorecard.com/ja/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [AGIはいつ来るか](https://agiscorecard.com/ja/when-will-agi-arrive) - [レオポルド・アッシェンブレナーとは誰か](https://agiscorecard.com/ja/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) ## Português (Portuguese) - [Aschenbrenner acertou sobre a AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/pt/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [A AGI vai chegar em 2027?](https://agiscorecard.com/pt/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [A IA de código aberto desapareceu?](https://agiscorecard.com/pt/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [A China vai superar os EUA na AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/pt/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [Quando a AGI vai chegar?](https://agiscorecard.com/pt/when-will-agi-arrive) - [Quem é Leopold Aschenbrenner?](https://agiscorecard.com/pt/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) ## Deutsch (German) - [Hatte Aschenbrenner mit AGI recht?](https://agiscorecard.com/de/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [Kommt AGI bis 2027?](https://agiscorecard.com/de/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [Ist Open-Source-KI verschwunden?](https://agiscorecard.com/de/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [Überholt China die USA bei AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/de/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [Wann kommt AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/de/when-will-agi-arrive) - [Wer ist Leopold Aschenbrenner?](https://agiscorecard.com/de/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) ## Français (French) - [Aschenbrenner avait-il raison sur l'AGI ?](https://agiscorecard.com/fr/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [L'AGI arrivera-t-elle d'ici 2027 ?](https://agiscorecard.com/fr/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [L'IA open source a-t-elle décliné ?](https://agiscorecard.com/fr/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [La Chine devancera-t-elle les États-Unis sur l'AGI ?](https://agiscorecard.com/fr/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [Quand l'AGI arrivera-t-elle ?](https://agiscorecard.com/fr/when-will-agi-arrive) - [Qui est Leopold Aschenbrenner ?](https://agiscorecard.com/fr/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) ## 한국어 (Korean) - [아셴브레너의 예측은 맞았나](https://agiscorecard.com/ko/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [AGI는 2027년에 올까](https://agiscorecard.com/ko/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [오픈소스 AI는 쇠퇴했나](https://agiscorecard.com/ko/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [중국이 AGI에서 미국을 앞설까](https://agiscorecard.com/ko/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [AGI는 언제 올까](https://agiscorecard.com/ko/when-will-agi-arrive) - [레오폴드 아셴브레너는 누구인가](https://agiscorecard.com/ko/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner) ## Italiano (Italian) - [Aschenbrenner aveva ragione sull'AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/it/was-aschenbrenner-right) - [L'AGI arriverà entro il 2027?](https://agiscorecard.com/it/will-agi-arrive-2027) - [L'IA open source è svanita?](https://agiscorecard.com/it/did-open-source-ai-fade) - [La Cina batterà gli USA sull'AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/it/will-china-beat-us-to-agi) - [Quando arriverà l'AGI?](https://agiscorecard.com/it/when-will-agi-arrive) - [Chi è Leopold Aschenbrenner?](https://agiscorecard.com/it/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner)