{ "version": "practice-ledger-1", "frozenAt": "2026-10-05T15:50:39Z", "sourceCommit": "508f850737f5636c0bfe3fad158676506f0a1556", "sourceArtifact": "dist/temporal-outlook.json", "sourceArtifactSha256": "1660b2950ed0f072c2db6e7e4da9fa6273ec3efd3c7916804d139019fdc5d8aa", "forecastVersion": "temporal-outlook-1", "rules": { "eligibility": "15 个完整未来月份终点作主检验；2 个当月终点单列补估；3 个已过去月份的终点保留但不计前瞻成绩。期限从各序列最后观测月计算，不是从冻结日计算。", "selection": "保持原历史验证期选定的主模型及简单基线，不按未来结果改选；其余模型只作固定的次要比较。", "metric": "每个终点 APE=100×abs(预测−实际)/abs(实际)。实际为零则 APE 不适用，另报绝对误差。该指标不同于原回测的 1..h 路径 MAPE。", "aggregation": "按 3、6、12 个月分别比较五个序列的平均终点 APE；相同完整配对样本比较主模型与冻结基线，报告全部结果及缺失。1 个月当月补估单列。多个期限及行业并非独立试验。", "dataVintage": "优先留存官方首次发布版本及发布时间、获取时间、网址或文件哈希。若错过首发，只能标记首次留存版本并单列，不冒充首发；后续修订另增记录，不覆盖原值。", "timing": "目标月份不是发布日期。月份结束且官方相应数据发布后才可计分；缺发布数据记待核验，不计命中或失败。", "verdict": "同期限主模型平均 APE 小于冻结基线仅记本批优于基线；大于记未优于，相等记持平。不由小样本推出普遍有效、收益率或胜率。", "commercial": "宏观预测准确与具体行动赚钱分开检验。美国行业代理序列不能直接代表中国行业、特定企业、证券或代币。", "amendments": "保存本版，改假说或模型另开新版本。此为网站与 Git 版本快照，不是外部预注册或不可篡改证明。" }, "entries": [ { "id": "IPG334S-1m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG334S", "name": "美国计算机与电子产品产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG334S", "rawSha256": "e34da9e8f805e543d321acb8d54651d77bcd276c1cbf78713a8ef878efe2fd18", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 138.6877, "horizonMonths": 1, "targetMonth": "2026-09", "timing": "past_month", "primaryProspective": false, "selectedModel": "theta", "selectedForecast": 138.83313179848923, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 138.6877, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 138.6877, "seasonal": 127.4438, "trend12": 140.50963484848484, "ets": 139.18406213827421, "theta": 138.83313179848923, "arima": 138.63907589034997, "ridge": 138.68988275498157, "trees": 139.0869358897447, "median": 138.76150727673541, "Chronos-2": 139.21923828125, "Chronos-Bolt": 140.85922241210938 }, "status": "excluded_past_month", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG334S-3m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG334S", "name": "美国计算机与电子产品产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG334S", "rawSha256": "e34da9e8f805e543d321acb8d54651d77bcd276c1cbf78713a8ef878efe2fd18", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 138.6877, "horizonMonths": 3, "targetMonth": "2026-11", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "theta", "selectedForecast": 139.12378827334123, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 138.6877, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 138.6877, "seasonal": 130.2655, "trend12": 142.67042505827504, "ets": 140.0449212821681, "theta": 139.12378827334123, "arima": 138.5882622523135, "ridge": 139.04232743566612, "trees": 140.22816750813314, "median": 139.0830578545037, "Chronos-2": 139.61285400390625, "Chronos-Bolt": 142.00286865234375 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG334S-6m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG334S", "name": "美国计算机与电子产品产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG334S", "rawSha256": "e34da9e8f805e543d321acb8d54651d77bcd276c1cbf78713a8ef878efe2fd18", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 138.6877, "horizonMonths": 6, "targetMonth": "2027-02", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "theta", "selectedForecast": 139.55977298561922, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 138.6877, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 138.6877, "seasonal": 132.3677, "trend12": 145.91161037296035, "ets": 141.06318899202017, "theta": 139.55977298561922, "arima": 138.562431295176, "ridge": 140.21124732389757, "trees": 141.81914533462628, "median": 139.88551015475838, "Chronos-2": 140.15853881835938, "Chronos-Bolt": 143.31195068359375 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG334S-12m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG334S", "name": "美国计算机与电子产品产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG334S", "rawSha256": "e34da9e8f805e543d321acb8d54651d77bcd276c1cbf78713a8ef878efe2fd18", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 138.6877, "horizonMonths": 12, "targetMonth": "2027-08", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "theta", "selectedForecast": 140.43174241017522, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 138.6877, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 138.6877, "seasonal": 138.6877, "trend12": 152.39398100233095, "ets": 142.4003252165074, "theta": 140.43174241017522, "arima": 138.5539745352491, "ridge": 141.53390447575902, "trees": 144.11014938764455, "median": 140.98282344296712, "Chronos-2": 140.78097534179688, "Chronos-Bolt": 145.40220642089844 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPMAN-1m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPMAN", "name": "美国制造业产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN", "rawSha256": "3cb59d418439df3271a0b580480e51aa1837802cba81900f3f9b9ab316c25391", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 99.0964, "horizonMonths": 1, "targetMonth": "2026-09", "timing": "past_month", "primaryProspective": false, "selectedModel": "ridge", "selectedForecast": 99.12653540561065, "baselineModel": "seasonal", "baselineForecast": 98.0473, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 99.0964, "seasonal": 98.0473, "trend12": 99.55363030303027, "ets": 99.10794620752087, "theta": 99.09501171514493, "arima": 99.03461398865844, "ridge": 99.12653540561065, "trees": 99.0549900394128, "median": 99.09570585757247, "Chronos-2": 99.01388549804688, "Chronos-Bolt": 99.31196594238281 }, "status": "excluded_past_month", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPMAN-3m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPMAN", "name": "美国制造业产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN", "rawSha256": "3cb59d418439df3271a0b580480e51aa1837802cba81900f3f9b9ab316c25391", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 99.0964, "horizonMonths": 3, "targetMonth": "2026-11", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "last", "selectedForecast": 99.0964, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 99.0964, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 99.0964, "seasonal": 97.1299, "trend12": 99.98437296037294, "ets": 99.12457273943983, "theta": 99.09214803031534, "arima": 99.04639762094473, "ridge": 99.1812212506466, "trees": 98.99742514447274, "median": 99.09427401515768, "Chronos-2": 98.98741149902344, "Chronos-Bolt": 99.46817016601562 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPMAN-6m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPMAN", "name": "美国制造业产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN", "rawSha256": "3cb59d418439df3271a0b580480e51aa1837802cba81900f3f9b9ab316c25391", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 99.0964, "horizonMonths": 6, "targetMonth": "2027-02", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "last", "selectedForecast": 99.0964, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 99.0964, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 99.0964, "seasonal": 97.733, "trend12": 100.63048694638692, "ets": 99.13899717957572, "theta": 99.08785250307093, "arima": 99.04724239745701, "ridge": 98.67535038754129, "trees": 98.87413211162776, "median": 99.06754745026397, "Chronos-2": 98.9549331665039, "Chronos-Bolt": 99.56065368652344 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPMAN-12m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPMAN", "name": "美国制造业产出", "units": "2017=100，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN", "rawSha256": "3cb59d418439df3271a0b580480e51aa1837802cba81900f3f9b9ab316c25391", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 99.0964, "horizonMonths": 12, "targetMonth": "2027-08", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "ets", "selectedForecast": 99.15016377336029, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 99.0964, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 99.0964, "seasonal": 99.0964, "trend12": 101.9227149184149, "ets": 99.15016377336029, "theta": 99.07926144858214, "arima": 99.04722836283446, "ridge": 98.75872399706226, "trees": 98.70263411629612, "median": 99.08783072429108, "Chronos-2": 98.9109878540039, "Chronos-Bolt": 99.75857543945312 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG2211A2N-1m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG2211A2N", "name": "美国电力与燃气公用事业产出", "units": "2017=100，未季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG2211A2N", "rawSha256": "e5ff09b60c24bbff835661095a23032a9579b0d43f59e7fddc702b31a1e04012", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 125.4689, "horizonMonths": 1, "targetMonth": "2026-09", "timing": "past_month", "primaryProspective": false, "selectedModel": "ets", "selectedForecast": 109.51397894877061, "baselineModel": "seasonal", "baselineForecast": 105.1319, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 125.4689, "seasonal": 105.1319, "trend12": 117.1805651515152, "ets": 109.51397894877061, "theta": 109.2907904271211, "arima": 109.06952218633604, "ridge": 107.61479895241119, "trees": 112.55499394203314, "median": 109.40238468794585, "Chronos-2": 107.29175567626953, "Chronos-Bolt": 106.5693588256836 }, "status": "excluded_past_month", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG2211A2N-3m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG2211A2N", "name": "美国电力与燃气公用事业产出", "units": "2017=100，未季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG2211A2N", "rawSha256": "e5ff09b60c24bbff835661095a23032a9579b0d43f59e7fddc702b31a1e04012", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 125.4689, "horizonMonths": 3, "targetMonth": "2026-11", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "ets", "selectedForecast": 105.11731263620294, "baselineModel": "seasonal", "baselineForecast": 101.4705, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 125.4689, "seasonal": 101.4705, "trend12": 119.1993595571096, "ets": 105.11731263620294, "theta": 104.5673862680238, "arima": 103.20650624988433, "ridge": 104.58517177358861, "trees": 104.91748238893004, "median": 104.75132708125932, "Chronos-2": 102.55535888671875, "Chronos-Bolt": 103.98847198486328 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG2211A2N-6m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG2211A2N", "name": "美国电力与燃气公用事业产出", "units": "2017=100，未季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG2211A2N", "rawSha256": "e5ff09b60c24bbff835661095a23032a9579b0d43f59e7fddc702b31a1e04012", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 125.4689, "horizonMonths": 6, "targetMonth": "2027-02", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "arima", "selectedForecast": 116.76679223831698, "baselineModel": "seasonal", "baselineForecast": 115.7026, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 125.4689, "seasonal": 115.7026, "trend12": 122.22755116550121, "ets": 118.03320635594172, "theta": 118.47252515544122, "arima": 116.76679223831698, "ridge": 119.69719496638264, "trees": 118.79885987790186, "median": 118.63569251667154, "Chronos-2": 118.261962890625, "Chronos-Bolt": 117.66655731201172 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "IPG2211A2N-12m-20261005", "seriesId": "IPG2211A2N", "name": "美国电力与燃气公用事业产出", "units": "2017=100，未季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG2211A2N", "rawSha256": "e5ff09b60c24bbff835661095a23032a9579b0d43f59e7fddc702b31a1e04012", "originMonth": "2026-08", "originValue": 125.4689, "horizonMonths": 12, "targetMonth": "2027-08", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "theta", "selectedForecast": 122.51347292368965, "baselineModel": "seasonal", "baselineForecast": 125.4689, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 125.4689, "seasonal": 125.4689, "trend12": 128.28393438228443, "ets": 121.60178488532387, "theta": 122.51347292368965, "arima": 121.68828201171237, "ridge": 122.98280448620571, "trees": 124.45756518052072, "median": 123.72018483336322, "Chronos-2": 120.85198974609375, "Chronos-Bolt": 120.64773559570312 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6054150001-1m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6054150001", "name": "美国计算机系统设计及相关服务就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001", "rawSha256": "75e049196b3b04f8ddf3c5651ba37efa0c51991e25399a6715880a55c671a77a", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 2355.4, "horizonMonths": 1, "targetMonth": "2026-10", "timing": "current_month", "primaryProspective": false, "selectedModel": "ridge", "selectedForecast": 2355.3393598020375, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 2355.4, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 2355.4, "seasonal": 2379.7, "trend12": 2356.0424242424247, "ets": 2352.455349688462, "theta": 2358.115187765432, "arima": 2352.2092404224445, "ridge": 2355.3393598020375, "trees": 2352.180556753465, "median": 2355.3696799010186, "Chronos-2": 2345.841552734375, "Chronos-Bolt": 2345.79931640625 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6054150001-3m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6054150001", "name": "美国计算机系统设计及相关服务就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001", "rawSha256": "75e049196b3b04f8ddf3c5651ba37efa0c51991e25399a6715880a55c671a77a", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 2355.4, "horizonMonths": 3, "targetMonth": "2026-12", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "ridge", "selectedForecast": 2357.7730395292156, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 2355.4, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 2355.4, "seasonal": 2380.6, "trend12": 2351.4990675990684, "ets": 2346.942465919996, "theta": 2363.5439492890696, "arima": 2346.276308834537, "ridge": 2357.7730395292156, "trees": 2344.9419210750757, "median": 2353.449533799534, "Chronos-2": 2343.7998046875, "Chronos-Bolt": 2343.646484375 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6054150001-6m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6054150001", "name": "美国计算机系统设计及相关服务就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001", "rawSha256": "75e049196b3b04f8ddf3c5651ba37efa0c51991e25399a6715880a55c671a77a", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 2355.4, "horizonMonths": 6, "targetMonth": "2027-03", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "ridge", "selectedForecast": 2360.833862728429, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 2355.4, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 2355.4, "seasonal": 2369.6, "trend12": 2344.684032634034, "ets": 2339.5351320665936, "theta": 2371.6870915745258, "arima": 2338.39264738696, "ridge": 2360.833862728429, "trees": 2334.9122989470175, "median": 2350.042016317017, "Chronos-2": 2337.86865234375, "Chronos-Bolt": 2336.76611328125 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6054150001-12m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6054150001", "name": "美国计算机系统设计及相关服务就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001", "rawSha256": "75e049196b3b04f8ddf3c5651ba37efa0c51991e25399a6715880a55c671a77a", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 2355.4, "horizonMonths": 12, "targetMonth": "2027-09", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "arima", "selectedForecast": 2325.6827701971697, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 2355.4, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 2355.4, "seasonal": 2355.4, "trend12": 2331.0539627039648, "ets": 2327.3656306904413, "theta": 2387.9733761454386, "arima": 2325.6827701971697, "ridge": 2377.961216798225, "trees": 2317.672716836617, "median": 2343.2269813519824, "Chronos-2": 2327.7900390625, "Chronos-Bolt": 2327.646240234375 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6562000001-1m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6562000001", "name": "美国医疗保健与社会援助就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000001", "rawSha256": "303d46a50651ccb69350268cfebf56aaf1f58a342d2ad5736e07cdecf4a8de48", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 23958.6, "horizonMonths": 1, "targetMonth": "2026-10", "timing": "current_month", "primaryProspective": false, "selectedModel": "arima", "selectedForecast": 23958.938516085076, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 23958.6, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 23958.6, "seasonal": 23485.8, "trend12": 24040.074242424234, "ets": 23974.098975704997, "theta": 23974.7173225065, "arima": 23958.938516085076, "ridge": 24045.04344698557, "trees": 23953.84246361563, "median": 23966.51874589504, "Chronos-2": 24064.30078125, "Chronos-Bolt": 24068.396484375 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6562000001-3m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6562000001", "name": "美国医疗保健与社会援助就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000001", "rawSha256": "303d46a50651ccb69350268cfebf56aaf1f58a342d2ad5736e07cdecf4a8de48", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 23958.6, "horizonMonths": 3, "targetMonth": "2026-12", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "trees", "selectedForecast": 24053.904692141194, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 23958.6, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 23958.6, "seasonal": 23587.5, "trend12": 24127.317599067588, "ets": 24005.045982806012, "theta": 24006.955808200702, "arima": 23958.869148858197, "ridge": 24177.209720935694, "trees": 24053.904692141194, "median": 24006.000895503355, "Chronos-2": 24149.60546875, "Chronos-Bolt": 24157.09375 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6562000001-6m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6562000001", "name": "美国医疗保健与社会援助就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000001", "rawSha256": "303d46a50651ccb69350268cfebf56aaf1f58a342d2ad5736e07cdecf4a8de48", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 23958.6, "horizonMonths": 6, "targetMonth": "2027-03", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "trees", "selectedForecast": 24186.921244071804, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 23958.6, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 23958.6, "seasonal": 23756.7, "trend12": 24258.182634032622, "ets": 24050.88865118332, "theta": 24055.313536741996, "arima": 23958.86274174471, "ridge": 24261.97298286902, "trees": 24186.921244071804, "median": 24053.101093962658, "Chronos-2": 24313.04296875, "Chronos-Bolt": 24302.447265625 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null }, { "id": "CES6562000001-12m-20261005", "seriesId": "CES6562000001", "name": "美国医疗保健与社会援助就业", "units": "千人，季调", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000001", "rawSha256": "303d46a50651ccb69350268cfebf56aaf1f58a342d2ad5736e07cdecf4a8de48", "originMonth": "2026-09", "originValue": 23958.6, "horizonMonths": 12, "targetMonth": "2027-09", "timing": "future_month", "primaryProspective": true, "selectedModel": "trees", "selectedForecast": 24426.347628163418, "baselineModel": "last", "baselineForecast": 23958.6, "allMethodForecasts": { "last": 23958.6, "seasonal": 23958.6, "trend12": 24519.91270396269, "ets": 24140.531577153644, "theta": 24152.02899382458, "arima": 23958.862890635042, "ridge": 24528.670922756708, "trees": 24426.347628163418, "median": 24146.280285489112, "Chronos-2": 24683.97265625, "Chronos-Bolt": 24708.033203125 }, "status": "awaiting_release", "actual": null, "actualReleaseDate": null, "retrievedAt": null, "actualVintage": null, "evidenceUrl": null, "score": null } ] }