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Never choose on audit.","baselineSelection":"Select among last/seasonal/trend12 using same selection data.","median":"Pointwise median of the eight local methods; require all eight to succeed.","refit":"Each origin independently uses its latest 240 observed months; no future target or scaler fitted on future data.","neural":"Fixed pretrained weights. Compared only on audit origins >= 2025-11 and complete target paths; not eligible for historical selector. 12-month neural audit is unavailable.","metric":"Mean absolute percentage error over steps 1..h at each origin, then equal-weight origins and series. Origins overlap; sample count is not independent observations.","direction":"Endpoint versus last observation; not year-over-year. For nonseasonal interpretation compare the same forecast month a year earlier.","vintage":"Frozen current FRED vintage; not historical release-time data, and publication lag is not reconstructed.","params":{"ETS":"additive damped trend; additive 12-month seasonality only for unadjusted series; use_brute=False","Theta":"theta=2; deseasonalize only unadjusted series, period 12","ARIMA":"(1,1,1); additional (0,1,1,12) only for unadjusted series; log input; L-BFGS maxiter 300; retry Powell maxiter 1000 on nonconvergence; still nonconverged fits excluded","Ridge":"alpha=10, 24 relative lag values and calendar sin/cos, direct 12 outputs, train-only standardization","ExtraTrees":"100 trees, min_samples_leaf=4, max_depth=8, seed=42; same direct relative-target training set","baseline":"last value, same month last year, ordinary least squares over last 12 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Check mle_retvals"},{"context":"CES6562000001@2018-12-01","model":"arima","warning":"L-BFGS did not converge; retried with Powell independently of forecast accuracy"},{"context":"CES6562000001@2018-12-01","model":"arima","warning":"Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals"},{"context":"CES6562000001@2024-12-01","model":"arima","warning":"L-BFGS did not converge; retried with Powell independently of forecast accuracy"},{"context":"CES6562000001@2024-12-01","model":"arima","warning":"Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check 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