01
OpenAI
Professional agents, model economics and distribution.
Watch paid retention, task reliability and actual cost per completed task.
Official source ↗AGI RESEARCH LAB / 01
The future is a range.
Explore your assumptions.
Explore conditional AI futures, societal changes and business opportunities. Change assumptions, inspect evidence, and keep a reproducible research record.
Free to explore · No account required · Runs in your browser
01 / NOWAI
→Intelligent tools
02 / IFRSI
→Recursive improvement
03 / IFSI
Superintelligence
A research framework. No stage or arrival date is guaranteed.
01 / SCENARIO EXPLORER
What changes when your assumptions change?
These sliders are illustrative assumptions, not measurements of the world. Compare a baseline, then test the conditions you think are plausible.
Illustrative baseline · 2035
Loading model…RSI proxy crossed—Share of simulated paths
SI proxy crossed—Share of simulated paths
RSI not reached—Within selected horizon
Illustrative capability indexMedian · shaded 10th–90th percentiles
Conditional simulation shares, not calibrated probabilities. The index is a model variable, not an AGI benchmark.
Keep this scenario & continue researching →
Which assumptions move the result?
One parameter +10 points (−10 above 90), same seed, 384 paths. This is model sensitivity, not causation measured in the world.
02 / EVIDENCE RADAR
Follow the companies. Question the signal.
Last snapshot check: 2026-10-31T16:20:44Z
The existing daily publishing job checks five official sources. This page checks the published snapshot every five minutes. Feed metadata is automatic discovery, not independent verification.
02
Anthropic
Enterprise workflows, coding and controlled autonomy.
Watch production deployment, cloud commitments and customer margins.
Official source ↗03
Meta
Consumer distribution, open ecosystems and ad monetization.
Watch product retention, licensing, capital spending and free cash flow.
Official source ↗04
SpaceX / xAI
Grok, compute, connectivity and infrastructure integration.
Watch disclosed corporate structure, segment economics and actual delivery. Do not infer a tradable ticker from a brand.
Official source ↗05
Google DeepMind
Research automation, cloud and existing distribution.
Watch independent replication, cloud profit and cash returns on infrastructure.
Official source ↗Recent source items & feed health
03 / HUMAN CONSEQUENCES
Progress changes more than technology.
Conditional research questions to revisit as evidence changes. These are editorial scenarios, not outputs trained on future outcomes.
Work & income
Automation can expand a small team’s reach. Junior tasks and bargaining power may shrink first. Track wages, paid hours and value added—not task benchmarks alone.
Science & education
Cheaper experiment design and tutoring matter only if replication, clinical outcomes and long-term learning improve. Physical validation can remain the bottleneck.
Energy & infrastructure
Demand may grow for grids, cooling and interconnects. Efficiency gains, overbuilding and low utilization can reverse the investment case.
Power & governance
Ownership and access determine who captures productivity gains. Watch concentration, portability, audit quality and whether audits actually change deployments.
Security & trust
More capable agents can strengthen defense and scale misuse. Track actual incidents, loss severity, access controls and emergency intervention capacity.
Life beyond work
Under safe and broadly shared progress, services could become cheaper. Tax systems, public services and accountability may adapt slowly; abundance is not automatic.
04 / OPPORTUNITY MAP
Find a buyer. Test the economics.
Reliable industry workflows
Sell a measurable result to a named budget owner. Test three paid pilots in six weeks; include correction and delivery cost.
Verification & safety
Sell audit readiness or lower failure cost. A free evaluation without a buyer or renewal budget is weak demand evidence.
Physical research automation
Pair models with instruments and reproducible feedback. Compare full experiment cycles, certification and support costs.
Energy & compute efficiency
Measure realized savings after retrofit, financing and operations. Nominal efficiency is not the same as positive cash flow.
Market exposure to investigate
Open investment research ↗Examples for research, not a ranked buy list. No live prices or return forecasts. Technical progress can coexist with weak shareholder returns. Confirm listing, financials, valuation and risks in current filings.
| Theme | Examples | What can break the thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Compute supply | NVDA · AMD · AVGO · TSM · ASML | Orders, margins, customer concentration, export rules and custom-chip substitution. |
| Cloud & distribution | MSFT · AMZN · GOOGL · META | Incremental AI revenue versus depreciation, capital spending and price competition. |
| Power & cooling | ETN · VRT · SU.PA | Grid delivery, backlog conversion, utilization and cash collection. |
| China platforms | 0700.HK · 9988.HK / BABA | Paid adoption, cloud margins, regulatory changes and financing dilution. |
05 / MAKE IT YOURS
Keep the reasoning. Revisit the decision.
Local saves and exports are free. Parameters and notes stay in your browser unless you explicitly save them on the member page.
WHEN YOUR RESEARCH NEEDS CONTINUITY
A workspace for your evolving judgment.
Existing AGI cloud membership saves this scenario across devices with version history. It uses a separate member key; it is not automatically linked to your free account.
50 workspaces · 10 versions each · 64 KiB per version · 5 MiB total. No auto-renewal or additional AI quota.
9 USDT / 30 days
Plus order-matching decimal and network fees. USDT only.
Checking current availability…
Opening the page does not upload, place an order or charge you. Save explicitly there.
06 / OPEN THE MODEL
A model you can inspect.
01 · System dynamics
Quarterly capability and research-autonomy states interact with resources, deployment constraints and feedback. Coefficients are explicit assumptions.
02 · Monte Carlo ensemble
1,024 reproducible paths sample slow, middle and fast regimes with priors 28%, 50%, 22%. The band describes variation inside this model, not all uncertainty.
03 · Evidence weighting
Dated official items from the past 90 days can make small heuristic updates. At most one signal per company; announcements are not independent measurements. This is uncalibrated Bayesian-style weighting.
04 · Neural surrogate
A 4→12→8→1 neural network learns 200 synthetic simulator examples at the 2035 horizon (160 training, 40 held out). It approximates this simulator, not the real future. It does not replace the main result.
Exact thresholds, assumptions & limitations
RSI proxy: capability ≥ 0.72, autonomy ≥ 0.55 and feedback multiplier ≥ 1.55 for four quarters. SI proxy: after RSI, capability ≥ 0.92 and autonomy ≥ 0.80 for four quarters. These definitions are modeling choices, not agreed scientific standards.
The model starts at 2026.75 with capability 0.32 and autonomy 0.13. Coefficients have not been fitted to a historical outcome set. There are no verified RSI/SI outcome labels for calibration. It does not estimate unemployment, geopolitical incidents, company returns or existential risk. Governance only models deployment speed here, not the benefits of safety.
Inspect core model source · Inspect source snapshot · Daily computed baselineEach daily publication recomputes the default scenario from its source snapshot. Your saved assumptions and old snapshots are preserved until you explicitly change them.
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