AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker: one score for the whole bet
Read the score with its history
The published ledger is 62.5/100, dated 2026-09-06. Eight equally weighted judgments make up this score. It is not the probability that AGI arrives.
Citation note version: · Ledger date:
Inspect sources and scope
Sources may evolve. Retain their study window when citing. The note version does not mean the entire older article was reassessed.
AGI Scorecard. Read the score with its history. Citation note version 2026-10-02; ledger 2026-09-06. https://agiscorecard.com/progress-index. CC BY 4.0.
Use the evidence to make your assessmentThe score right now: 62.5/100
Each of the 8 predictions contributes to the score by its verdict: a supporting verdict (On track / Exceeded / Holding) adds 1.0, an unresolved one (Open / Pending) adds 0.5, and a refuting one (Wrong) adds 0.0. The mean, times 100, is the score.
| Prediction | Verdict | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Models outpace college graduates across knowledge work | On track | +1.0 |
| Compute + algorithmic scaling continues at trend | On track | +1.0 |
| Massive AI capex acceleration | Exceeded | +1.0 |
| Open source fades; proprietary algorithms create a durable US moat | Wrong | 0.0 |
| AGI: models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer | Open | +0.5 |
| US government launches formal AGI project | Open | +0.5 |
| Intelligence explosion: a decade of progress in ~1 year | Pending | +0.5 |
| Superintelligence; decisive strategic advantage | Pending | +0.5 |
Sum = 5.0 across 8 predictions → 62.5/100. This is deliberately simple and public: the machine-readable dataset and score history let anyone recompute or chart it.
Your call: which unresolved prediction flips first?
One tap, no account. All four carry the pre-registered flip conditions graded above.
Why a single number?
Every other AGI tracker gives you either a vibe or a wall of takes. The Thesis Tracker gives you one auditable figure that changes only on evidence, with a pre-registered condition behind every move. It is not a probability of AGI by 2027 — it is a running score of how Aschenbrenner’s specific, falsifiable claims are grading. The headline claim resolves by January 1, 2028.
Score history
| Date | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 62.5/100 |
| 2026-08-08 | 62.5/100 |
| 2026-07-12 | 62.5/100 |
| 2026-06-30 | 62.5/100 |
The score has held near 62.5 because the tally (3 on track, 1 wrong, 2 open, 2 pending) has been stable — exactly the kind of flat-until-it-isn’t signal worth watching as the 2028 deadline nears.
Frequently asked questions
A single 0-100 score of how much of Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness thesis is holding up, computed as the mean of the 8 graded verdict weights. As of 2026-09-06 it is 62.5/100. It is an editorial composite of published verdicts, not a probability of AGI.
Each of the 8 predictions contributes by verdict: supporting (On track/Exceeded/Holding) = 1.0, unresolved (Open/Pending) = 0.5, refuting (Wrong) = 0.0. The mean times 100 is the score. The full breakdown and machine-readable data are public.
Only when a verdict changes, and every verdict has a pre-registered flip condition. The headline 'AGI by 2027' claim resolves by January 1, 2028, which is the most likely near-term mover.
Yes. The score, breakdown, and history are CC BY 4.0 at /data.json and /index-history.json. Cite the AGI Scorecard and link agiscorecard.com.
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