AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker: one score for the whole bet
The score right now: 62.5/100
Each of the 8 predictions contributes to the score by its verdict: a supporting verdict (On track / Exceeded / Holding) adds 1.0, an unresolved one (Open / Pending) adds 0.5, and a refuting one (Wrong) adds 0.0. The mean, times 100, is the score.
| Prediction | Verdict | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Models outpace college graduates across knowledge work | On track | +1.0 |
| Compute + algorithmic scaling continues at trend | On track | +1.0 |
| Massive AI capex acceleration | Exceeded | +1.0 |
| Open source fades; proprietary algorithms create a durable US moat | Wrong | 0.0 |
| AGI: models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer | Open | +0.5 |
| US government launches formal AGI project | Open | +0.5 |
| Intelligence explosion: a decade of progress in ~1 year | Pending | +0.5 |
| Superintelligence; decisive strategic advantage | Pending | +0.5 |
Sum = 5.0 across 8 predictions → 62.5/100. This is deliberately simple and public: the machine-readable dataset and score history let anyone recompute or chart it.
Why a single number?
Every other AGI tracker gives you either a vibe or a wall of takes. The Thesis Tracker gives you one auditable figure that changes only on evidence, with a pre-registered condition behind every move. It is not a probability of AGI by 2027 — it is a running score of how Aschenbrenner’s specific, falsifiable claims are grading. The headline claim resolves by January 1, 2028.
Score history
| Date | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 62.5/100 |
| 2026-06-30 | 62.5/100 |
The score has held near 62.5 because the tally (3 on track, 1 wrong, 2 open, 2 pending) has been stable — exactly the kind of flat-until-it-isn’t signal worth watching as the 2028 deadline nears.
What the betting market says
Our score grades published evidence. A prediction market prices money-weighted belief. They are different instruments — put side by side, the gap between them is the interesting part. Odds below are pulled live from Polymarket by your own browser when you ask for them; we never cache, edit, or estimate them.
Compare with our own reading: the Thesis Tracker sits at 62.5/100 — an editorial composite of 8 graded verdicts, not a probability. A market quoting, say, 20% on an AGI question is not "contradicting" 62.5; the two measure different things. We have no affiliation with Polymarket, take no fees, and nothing here is a solicitation to trade.
Frequently asked questions
A single 0-100 score of how much of Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness thesis is holding up, computed as the mean of the 8 graded verdict weights. As of 2026-07-12 it is 62.5/100. It is an editorial composite of published verdicts, not a probability of AGI.
Each of the 8 predictions contributes by verdict: supporting (On track/Exceeded/Holding) = 1.0, unresolved (Open/Pending) = 0.5, refuting (Wrong) = 0.0. The mean times 100 is the score. The full breakdown and machine-readable data are public.
Only when a verdict changes, and every verdict has a pre-registered flip condition. The headline 'AGI by 2027' claim resolves by January 1, 2028, which is the most likely near-term mover.
Yes. The score, breakdown, and history are CC BY 4.0 at /data.json and /index-history.json. Cite the AGI Scorecard and link agiscorecard.com.
The live scorecard updates as models ship and verdicts change.
View the live scorecard →Get notified when the score moves
The Thesis Tracker changes only on real evidence. Subscribe to hear the moment a verdict flips — free, no hype.
Subscribe free →