About the AGI Scorecard
The AGI Scorecard is an independent, continuously updated tracker that grades the major predictions from Leopold Aschenbrenner's June 2024 essay Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead against real-world AI progress.
Why this site exists
AGI forecasts are usually debated in the abstract — bold claims get attention when made and are quietly forgotten when due. This scorecard does the unglamorous part: it wrote down every major, checkable prediction from one influential document, attached a pre-registered condition that would flip each verdict, and grades them in public as evidence arrives.
Methodology
- Verdicts are one of four grades: On track, Wrong, Open, or Pending — each with the reasoning and evidence stated on its page.
- Pre-registered flip conditions: every verdict states in advance what evidence would change it, so grading can't quietly move the goalposts.
- Public evidence only: verdicts rest on published benchmarks, retrospectives, and documented public statements — never private information or invented figures.
- Updates as reality changes: when a frontier release or a resolution date moves a verdict, the scorecard and the affected pages are updated, and the change is noted in the homepage changelog.
Independence
This site is not affiliated with any AI lab, with Leopold Aschenbrenner, or with Situational Awareness LP. It holds no position for or against the essay's thesis: three of its predictions currently grade On track and one grades Wrong, and both facts get equal billing.
Contact
The best way to reach the maintainers is by replying to any issue of the weekly briefing — replies land directly in our inbox.