Live experiment · Pre-registered, auditable

The Paradigm Bet: Can "2013 Bitcoin" Be Repeated Honestly?

Opened: August 23, 2026 · Audited monthly (5th) · Entries only change with a dated note

–
days running

3
pre-registered

0
kill conditions fired

Sep 5
next audit

This page is an anti-hindsight device. Every "I bought early" legend is written after the fact — including the most famous one, which our audit found unverifiable. So we are running the experiment the opposite way: a small, fixed experimental allocation; candidates screened by six pre-registered criteria; kill conditions filed here before entry; monthly audits with dated notes. The honest base rates say the modal outcome is a loss — per-cohort data shows winners were category leaders, NFT-2021 produced zero, and 73–81% of retail lost money even in the winning asset (BIS). If this ledger ends red, that is a result, not an embarrassment. Nothing here is investment advice.

The pre-registered ledger

Candidate	Thesis (filed 2026-08-23)	Kill condition (filed before entry)	Status
Bittensor (TAO)	Only liquid asset passing both "paradigm-direct" and "still mocked" screens: fixed 21M supply, first halving Dec 2025, subnets 32→128 in a year. Honest asymmetry: 10–30x class, not 100x.	Numeric (tightened 2026-08-23, pre-entry): exit if the flagship-subnet emissions/external-revenue ratio is still >15:1 at 2027-06-30 (baseline ~20:1), and unconditionally if not <10:1 by 2027-12-31; exit on >50% sustained decay of volume or dev activity for two consecutive quarters.	Open
x402 agent-payment rail	Purest 2013 texture: Visa/Mastercard/Stripe building inside the foundation while press dismisses it (~$28K/day real commerce). But no honest instrument captures rail value today.	Watch only. Re-evaluate iff real settlement ≥$280K/day sustained 30 days (10x baseline), or a <$1B-cap asset verifiably captures ≥$1M/yr of rail fees. Base case (no investable token): never enter. No trigger by 2027-06-30 → drop to quarterly checks.	Watchlist
Onshore humanoid-robotics ETF	The only fully-legal paradigm exposure for a mainland-China allocator; China is the manufacturing epicenter. Entered knowing it is the anti-pattern moment (an 8,000x-oversubscribed IPO is the opposite of neglect).	No averaging down into euphoria unwinds; death signal = ETF assets −60% from peak or core holdings delisted; positioning review 2027-08-19 (IPO anniversary). Role: legal beta exposure — no 10x fantasy applies.	Open

The rules this ledger runs on

Derived from the measured base rates, filed before any entry: (1) only category leaders, never cheap alternatives — every cohort's graveyard is full of "affordable versions of the winner"; (2) position sizes assume a −85% mark on everything without forced selling; (3) selling happens on measured death signals (volume, attention, developer-activity decay), never on drawdown; (4) horizon 5–10 years — the historical winner took 4.3–11 years to 100x; (5) every change to this page carries a date and a reason. Sources and the full research behind the screens: the two-ledger audit · how we pre-register claims.

Audit trail

Every change to this ledger, dated, permanent — including changes to the rules themselves. Rendered live from the same database the monthly audit writes to.

2026-08-23 · Ledger opened; three entries pre-registered. Falsifiers tightened same day from qualitative to numeric thresholds with checkpoint dates — tightening is allowed only before entry; after entry the terms freeze and can only be executed, not edited.

Follow the audits

Monthly audit notes land on this page. One email when a kill condition triggers or an entry changes — nothing else.

Email me the audit notes →

Method kin: Thesis Tracker · copy-homework record · Invest hub. This page documents a personal experiment for transparency; it is not a recommendation, and mainland-China legal constraints on crypto are real and documented in the research.