AI prediction receipts: every dated call, on the clock

The receipts, soonest due first

A receipt is simple: the exact public claim, the date it comes due, and a live clock. No editorializing — the stamps below are pure date math, and every claim links to its full sourced record. When a date passes, the receipt stays.

Statuses update automatically: ON THE CLOCK (deadline ahead) → EXPIRES SOON (≤180 days) → DATE PASSED (deadline behind, claim unresolved on our scorecard). Probabilistic calls (“~50% by…”) are graded at their date, not before.

What the market is paying on these calls

A receipt records what someone said and when it comes due. A prediction market records what people will risk money on right now. Neither is proof — but a claim trading in the single digits while its deadline closes in is a receipt worth watching.

Odds are fetched by your browser from Polymarket and shown verbatim — we never cache or estimate them. We have no affiliation with Polymarket, take no fees, and nothing here is a solicitation to trade. Our own reading stays the Thesis Tracker (62.5/100), an editorial composite of graded verdicts, not a probability.

Why keep receipts?

Because timelines are the one thing AI discourse never gets held to. Public figures make dated calls; the dates pass; the conversation moves on. This page doesn't. It pairs each claim with the same evidence base our scorecard uses — the AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker (62.5/100 as of July 2026) grades the nearest big claim against benchmarks, compute and capex, and moves only when a verdict changes. See also the full forecaster leaderboard ranked by boldness.

Frequently asked questions

Elon Musk's — he has said AGI arrives by the end of 2026, the boldest dated call on record. That receipt comes due December 31, 2026. Dario Amodei's 'powerful AI possibly 2026–27' window closes a year later, and Leopold Aschenbrenner's AGI-2027 thesis resolves January 1, 2028.

The receipt stays and the stamp flips to DATE PASSED — pure date math against the claim's own deadline. Whether the claim was fulfilled is graded separately on the scorecard; as of July 2026 no system has met the AGI bar, and the AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker reads 62.5/100.

Every claim is a documented public position — each receipt links to a full sourced record on this site, and the machine-readable dataset (data.json, CC BY 4.0) carries the primary sources. Nothing is invented; probabilistic forecasts are labeled and graded at their date, not before.