← Live scorecard
Changelog

What changed, and when

Last updated: June 30, 2026 · Updated as verdicts change
Everything that changed on the evidence layer, dated and real. Every entry corresponds to a shipped change; score history is machine-readable. If you would rather not check back: subscribers get one email when something that matters actually changes — a verdict, the score, a new tool — and silence otherwise.

Changes

2026-08-15Listed on the official MCP Registry
com.agiscorecard/agi-scorecard is now on registry.modelcontextprotocol.io — AI agents can discover and call the Thesis Tracker, verdicts, market ledger and site search natively, no auth.
2026-08-15First on-site subscriber
The inline form converted its first reader end-to-end (homepage footer, Aug 14). The address is stored first-party; it syncs to the newsletter the moment the beehiiv key is configured.
2026-08-14A dated status line on the most-read page
"When will AGI arrive?" now opens with the two numbers that actually move: 504 days until the nearest forecast is settled, and 45 days with the Thesis Tracker stuck at 62.5 — the disagreement is moving, the evidence is not.
2026-08-13English stock coverage completed
Every US-listed name SunWatch tracks now has an English page — 18 of 18 — plus a new /en/stocks index. The names that are still Chinese-only are listed and labelled as such rather than quietly left out.
2026-08-13The exposure tool now points at the one paid product
/ai-stock-exposure is the most-used tool on the site and had no path to SunWatch, the only subscription on this domain with a real price. It has one now — with the public hit-and-miss ledger linked, not a claim.
2026-08-13New tool: Your AGI Timeline
One slider places the year you expect AGI against nine real published forecasts — bull, base case or bear — with a shareable result. Free, embeddable.
2026-08-13Holdings-update promise made accurate
The invest pages no longer promise a same-day rewrite of every 13F. Holdings change only after a filing is read line by line — and subscribers hear the day the page changes.
2026-08-12Opinion hook on the Altman page
The second-most-cited page now asks where you land versus Altman's "few thousand days" — one tap onto the forecaster spectrum.
2026-08-11More English stock pages
Rocket Lab and SK hynix ADR added to the English invest pages (five now), with a fix so Chinese-named tickers render properly in English.
2026-08-10Traffic reporting corrected
Server-side "human" pageviews turned out to include an unrecognised crawler fleet; real-reader counts now come from JS-executed pageviews, and a UA audit records who is actually knocking.
2026-08-09English stock pages on the invest console
SunWatch's per-ticker analysis now has English pages (SanDisk, Micron, SpaceX to start), with reciprocal hreflang. More each run.
2026-08-08MCP server live at /mcp
AI agents can now call get_thesis_tracker, get_verdicts and search_site natively over Model Context Protocol — free, no auth.
2026-08-08Calibration page published
Every probability-shaped claim inventoried; Brier score pre-committed at n≥20. Misses stay published.
2026-08-08AGI-2027 resolution page + odds-vs-evidence series
Resolution criteria locked 17 months before the deadline; issue #1 comparing prediction-market odds with the evidence read.
2026-08-08Site search with demand logging
Full-site search (EN+中文) at /search; queries and zero-result gaps now drive what gets built next.
2026-08-08Red-team desk on the invest console
Survival odds (52–65%) for every open market call, strongest counter-case included; space-top confidence cut 60%→52% same day.
2026-08-08Investing sub-sites merged under one domain
SunWatch → invest.agiscorecard.com, AI Investing Compass → compass.agiscorecard.com; English landing + language negotiation added.
2026-08-08One-tap flip poll on the Thesis Tracker
Pick which open prediction flips first; per-prediction email alert stores your pick as the topic.
2026-08-06On-site signup, no redirect
All subscribe CTAs now open an inline form; addresses stored first-party before forwarding, per-context promises (e.g. 'one email, only if this verdict flips').
2026-08-05First-party analytics + shareable baskets
Server-side pageviews (counts AI crawlers ad blockers miss); /ai-stock-exposure baskets permalinked via ?b=NVDA-AMD-TSM.
2026-07-26/ai-tools hub
All free tools in one place; four embeddable via iframe.
2026-07-25Site restructured: Research · Play · Invest
Three-section navigation and directory; Chinese pages moved to a unified light design system.
2026-07-12AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker launched
One auditable 0–100 score recomputed from the 8 verdicts; history at /index-history.json. The AGI type test (/agi-test) shipped the same day.
2026-06-30Scorecard launched
8 Situational Awareness predictions graded with pre-registered flip conditions; machine-readable at /data.json (CC BY 4.0).

Thesis Tracker score history

DateScore
2026-08-0862.5/100
2026-07-1262.5/100
2026-06-3062.5/100

Score points are stamped in /index-history.json (CC BY 4.0); the score only moves when a verdict changes.

Frequently asked questions

How often does this page update?

Whenever something real ships: a verdict change, a score move, a new tool or dataset. Entries are dated and correspond to public commits — nothing is backfilled or invented.

What counts as a change worth logging?

Verdict flips, Thesis Tracker score moves, new tools and datasets, and structural site changes. Routine copy edits do not qualify.

The live scorecard updates as models ship and verdicts change.

View the live scorecard →