Resolution record

AGI-2027 resolution: the criteria are locked, the clock is running

Last updated: June 30, 2026 · Updated as verdicts change

The "AGI by 2027" claim resolves by January 1, 2028 — and the resolution criteria are already locked. This page is the permanent record of how the headline claim of Situational Awareness gets graded: what counts as AGI under the claim, what the evidence says today, and exactly what happens on resolution day. Written and pre-registered long before the deadline, so nobody — including us — can move the goalposts later.

Time until the claim resolves (Jan 1, 2028)

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The claim, verbatim

Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness (June 2024): AGI by 2027 is "strikingly plausible" — where AGI means models that can do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. That definition is the resolution bar. Not chatbot benchmarks, not lab announcements: autonomous AI-research work.

Pre-registered resolution criteria

Outcome	Resolves when
Right	By 2028-01-01, credible public evidence that frontier models autonomously perform the work of an AI researcher/engineer (agentic research runs producing accepted novel results, or a lab demonstrating automated researchers at production scale).
Wrong	2028-01-01 arrives without that evidence. Strong coding agents alone (already here: ~80% SWE-Bench Pro) do not meet the bar — the claim is about research autonomy, not code completion.
Partial	Demonstrated autonomous research in narrow domains but not the general "drop-in AI researcher". The verdict text will say exactly which half held.

Where the evidence stands today

As of 2026-08-08: verdict Open — agentic coding is strong, autonomous AI research remains undemonstrated. The wider thesis tracks at 62.5/100 on the Thesis Tracker (3 of 8 predictions on track, 1 wrong, 2 open, 2 pending). Prediction markets price the related-but-different announcement event separately — see odds vs evidence for why the two numbers should not be conflated.

What happens on resolution day

The verdict flips from Open to its final state, the Thesis Tracker recomputes, every embedded badge and widget updates, the dataset (data.json, CC BY 4.0) is re-stamped, and everyone subscribed to this prediction gets one email. This page then becomes the permanent resolution record with the full evidence trail.

Frequently asked questions

When does the AGI-2027 prediction resolve?

By January 1, 2028. The claim targets 2027, so the deadline is the end of that year; the verdict and full evidence trail will be published on this page.

What counts as AGI for this resolution?

Aschenbrenner's own bar: models that can do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. Strong coding assistants alone do not qualify; autonomous AI-research work does. The criteria above were pre-registered before the outcome.

What does the evidence say right now?

Verdict Open as of 2026-08-08: agentic coding is strong (~80% SWE-Bench Pro) but autonomous AI research is undemonstrated. The overall thesis tracks at 62.5/100.

How is this different from Polymarket's AGI market?

Prediction markets price announcement events (e.g. 'OpenAI announces AGI'). This page grades a capability claim against pre-registered criteria. An announcement without the capability would move their contract but not this verdict — and vice versa.

The live scorecard updates as models ship and verdicts change.

View the live scorecard →