AGI forecaster leaderboard: who's winning the bet?

The leaderboard: who called AGI soonest

Ranked by how soon each public forecaster says AGI arrives. Soonest date = boldest bet = first to face the verdict. Every position below is a real, on-the-record call — see each name's page for the source.

So who's actually winning?

None of them — not yet. No system has autonomously run AI research end-to-end, the milestone every one of these calls implicitly depends on. What has happened is that the inputs stayed on the aggressive forecasters' trend line: knowledge-work capability (~83% GDPval), agentic coding (~80% SWE-Bench Pro), and compute (~0.5 OOM/yr) all kept climbing. That is why the soonest callers aren't out yet — and why the AGI-by-2027 verdict stays Open rather than Wrong.

Report cards: the three boldest, graded

The three soonest callers, each graded against the same mid-2026 evidence — and each shareable on its own.

The tenth forecaster: the market

Every name above staked their reputation. A prediction market stakes cash, updates every minute, and has no ego to defend — so it is worth a row of its own on this board. Load it and see whether the crowd is bolder or more sceptical than the humans you just ranked.

Live from Polymarket via your browser, rendered verbatim — never cached or estimated. No affiliation, no fees, not a solicitation to trade. Market prices are probabilities; our Thesis Tracker (62.5/100) is an editorial composite of graded verdicts and measures something different.

The one scoreboard that moves with the evidence

A leaderboard of opinions is fun; a leaderboard of evidence is the point. Our AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker rolls all eight tracked predictions into a single auditable score — currently 62.5/100 — that moves only when a verdict changes, not when someone tweets. It is the closest thing to a live referee for the bets above. It resolves by January 1, 2028.

Frequently asked questions

Elon Musk has been the most aggressive, calling AGI by the end of 2026, followed by Leopold Aschenbrenner (2027) and Dario Amodei (“powerful AI” around 2026–27). The median expert forecast clusters around 2030, and a 2,778-person AI-researcher survey puts 50% odds at 2040.

Nobody has won yet. No system has autonomously conducted AI research end-to-end — the milestone these forecasts depend on — so even the soonest calls (Musk 2026, Aschenbrenner 2027) remain open, not resolved. The AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker reads 62.5/100 as of mid-2026.

The center of expert opinion sits around 2030–2033: Demis Hassabis (~50% by 2030), the Metaculus community (50% by 2033), and Samotsvety forecasters (~28% by 2030). Longer-horizon estimates like Andrej Karpathy's “about a decade out” and the 2,778-person survey's 50%-by-2040 pull the tail later.

It's ranked by how soon each forecaster says AGI arrives — soonest date first, because the boldest bet faces the verdict earliest. All positions are real, on-the-record public calls. The actual evidence is tracked separately by the auditable AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker.