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The Future Bet 🎲

What do you bet actually happens?

Twelve bold predictions about the next 15 years — AI, robots, Mars, aging, fusion. Tap YES if you bet it happens on time, NO if you don't. See which real forecaster you match — Elon Musk or a skeptic. 60 seconds, no sign-up.

Bet 1 of 12
Your forecaster match
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You just made 12 predictions. Want to know which ones come true? We actually track the biggest one — the live AGI‑2027 Thesis Tracker moves only when real evidence lands.

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Which forecaster are you closest to?

Your Future Bet score maps you onto the real spectrum of public AGI forecasters — from the boldest call to the most cautious. Every position is on the record.

🚀 Elon Musk (10–12 yes) — AGI by end of 2026, the most aggressive public call.
⏱️ Leopold Aschenbrenner (8–9) — AGI by 2027, the Situational Awareness thesis.
📊 Demis Hassabis (6–7) — ~50% by 2030, DeepMind’s measured-bull view.
🤔 Metaculus crowd (4–5) — ~50% by 2033, the forecaster consensus.
🛡️ Academic survey (0–3) — 50% by 2040, betting the trends break first.

The real forecasts behind the game

The bets in this game are open predictions, so your answers are opinions. But the AGI question is one we grade for real. Here is where the public forecasts actually stand, as of mid-2026 — every call on the record, ranked from soonest to latest:

ForecasterAGI callProfile
Elon Musk (xAI)By end of 2026details →
Dario Amodei (Anthropic)“Powerful AI” 2026–27details →
Leopold AschenbrennerAGI by 2027details →
Sam Altman (OpenAI)Near-term; ASI “a few thousand days”details →
Demis Hassabis (DeepMind)~50% by 2030details →
Metaculus community50% by 2033details →
Andrej Karpathy~A decade out (~2035)details →
AI researcher survey (n=2,778)50% by 2040details →

Positions as publicly stated; each links to its full profile with primary sources. The AGI‑2027 Thesis Tracker grades the live evidence at 62.5/100. No invented statistics.

FAQ

What is The Future Bet game?
A free 60-second game: you bet YES or NO on 12 bold predictions about the near future — AGI, humanoid robots, a human on Mars, anti-aging drugs, brain–computer interfaces, fusion power and more — and it matches you to the real public forecaster your bets are closest to, plus a shareable grid. No sign-up.
Is it based on real data?
The bets are open predictions, so your answers are opinions. Where real expert forecasts exist — most concretely for AGI — the game shows them (Musk ~2026 to survey ~2040; Tracker at 62.5/100). No invented statistics.
Which forecaster will I be matched with?
By how many of the 12 futures you bet happen on time, mapped onto the real spectrum: 10–12 Elon Musk (2026), 8–9 Aschenbrenner (2027), 6–7 Hassabis (~2030), 4–5 Metaculus (~2033), 0–3 the academic survey (~2040).
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