When will AGI arrive? Every major forecast, compared

The forecasts, side by side

Definitions of "AGI" vary enough that this table is approximate — some forecasters mean a drop-in remote worker, others a system that can autonomously do AI research. But the spread is real, and so is the direction of travel.

The meta-trend: everyone is moving earlier

The single most striking fact isn't any one date — it's the compression. Expert median estimates have moved from roughly 2060 to roughly 2033 in about six years. The whole distribution keeps sliding toward the aggressive end, where Aschenbrenner's 2027 sits.

Who's closest to being tested?

Aschenbrenner's 2027 call is the nearest concrete deadline among serious forecasters and resolves by January 1, 2028. As of mid-2026, agentic coding is strong (~80% on SWE-Bench Pro) but no system has autonomously conducted AI research end-to-end — the bar that would settle it. That gap is why his prediction is currently graded Open, not on track. See the full AGI forecaster leaderboard — every public call ranked by how soon it faces the verdict.

Frequently asked questions

There is no consensus. As of 2026, serious public forecasts range from 2026 (Musk) and 2027 (Aschenbrenner) to ~2030 (Hassabis), 2033 (Metaculus community), and 2040 (academic survey median).

Elon Musk is the most aggressive among prominent voices, suggesting AGI by end of 2026. Aschenbrenner's 2027 is next, more aggressive than lab leaders like Demis Hassabis (~50% by 2030).

The academic survey median (n=2,778) is 50% by 2040, and the Metaculus community median is 50% by 2033. But expert medians have compressed from roughly 2060 to 2033 in about six years.