Index
AGI questions, answered
Every question the scorecard answers, in one place · Updated as verdicts change
The AGI Scorecard grades every major prediction from Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness against reality — and answers the questions people actually ask about AGI. Here's the full index.
Start here
AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker — one score (62.5/100) →What's your AGI type? (30-second test) →Was Aschenbrenner right about AGI? →The full two-year scorecard →Situational Awareness, summarized →Every prediction, tracked →Is AGI just hype? →Is AGI inevitable? →
Timelines — when will AGI arrive?
Will AGI arrive by 2027? →When will AGI arrive? (all forecasts) →How close are we to AGI? →How will we know when AGI has arrived? →What is the AI 2027 scenario? →The Situational Awareness timeline, graded →AI progress in 2026 so far →How fast is AI improving? →
Forecasters
Who is building AGI? (the labs) →Who is Leopold Aschenbrenner? →Demis Hassabis's AGI prediction →Elon Musk's AGI prediction →Aschenbrenner vs Metaculus →Aschenbrenner vs Hassabis →Aschenbrenner vs Musk →Karpathy's AGI prediction →Altman's AGI prediction →Amodei's AGI prediction →🏆 AGI forecaster leaderboard: who's winning the bet? →🎲 The Future Bet: what do you bet happens? →📅 AI prediction receipts: every dated call, on the clock →📋 Will AI take my job? The 60-second exposure check →🧰 All six free AI & AGI tools, in one place →
The verdicts, one by one
Did open-source AI fade? (Wrong) →Is AI compute still scaling? (On track) →Did AI capex hit trillion-dollar scale? (Exceeded) →Can AI replace knowledge workers? (On track) →Will the US government build AGI? (Open) →Intelligence explosion in 2027? (Pending) →Will there be superintelligence? (Pending) →
Explainers
What is superintelligence? →What is the singularity? →What is unhobbling in AI? →AI orders of magnitude, explained →Situational Awareness vs AI 2027 →What is AGI? →Is ChatGPT AGI? →AI vs human intelligence →Narrow vs general AI →AGI vs superintelligence →What is GDPval? →What is SWE-Bench? →Are AI scaling laws dead? →
Jobs, money & geopolitics
Will AI replace programmers? →Will AI cause mass unemployment? →What jobs are safe from AI? →Will AI take over? →Is the AI capex a bubble? →Will China beat the US to AGI? →The US–China AI arms race →DeepSeek vs OpenAI: how far behind? →
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