Everyone has an instinct about when AGI shows up — almost nobody knows where that instinct sits next to the people who forecast for a living. Move the slider once and find out. Nine published positions, quoted word for word, from Musk's end-2026 to a 2,778-researcher median of 2040.
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There is no consensus: published positions run from Musk's end-2026 to a 2,778-researcher survey median of 2040, with Aschenbrenner at 2027, Hassabis ~50% by 2030 and the Metaculus community ~50% by 2033. This tool places your own pick against all nine, and against the graded evidence.
All nine are public positions quoted verbatim from the scorecard's machine-readable dataset at /data.json (CC BY 4.0). Where a forecaster gives a probability curve rather than a date, the marker sits at the year their own words put near 50%, and the wording is shown unaltered.
No. The tool shows where your view sits in the published distribution — it is a positioning device, not a forecast. What the scorecard actually grades is eight dated, falsifiable predictions, tracked as one auditable score.